🪤 Thinking Traps
Thinking Traps
参考斯坦福 CS146S 重制成零基础人话版。下面每篇都能直接读，想动手就进互动课。
- 1Intuition Traps: Why the Answer That Pops Up in 3 Seconds Is So Often WrongFrom bat-and-ball to doubling lily pads — three CRT 'grade-school' questions fooled half of MIT; meet System 1's blurting, System 2's laziness, and the cognitive miser, and learn to hit the slow-thinking switch when it counts
- 2Probability Traps: Switching Wins 2/3, a Positive Test Means ~2%, and the Wheel Owes You NothingThe Monty Hall problem, the taxicab and the doctors' test, Monte Carlo 1913 and the hot-hand saga — answer in your head first, then see the breakdown, and load Bayesian intuition with natural frequencies
- 3Statistical Traps: Should You Armor Where the Bullet Holes Are? — Survivorship Bias, Simpson's Paradox, Regression to the Mean, and Charts That LieWald inferring the downed planes from the ones that returned, Berkeley's admission rates reversing in aggregate, flight instructors' illusion that scolding works — the numbers aren't faked, yet the impression can be entirely fake; rule out statistical artifacts before reaching for causal explanations
- 4Decision Traps: the Rigged Wheel, the Season Tickets You Must 'Get Your Money's Worth' From, and the Mug Nobody Would SellAnchoring, sunk cost, framing, loss aversion, and the endowment effect — irrelevant numbers hijack your bids, money already spent hijacks your choices, and the same numbers reworded flip the majority; get fooled once, get immune — even experts aren't exempt
- 5Four Classic Logic Traps: Linda, 2-4-6, the Four Cards, and the Letter K — Get Fooled Once, Get Immune85% fall for the Linda problem, only 21% crack 2-4-6 on the first try, and the abstract four-card task is solved by fewer than 10% yet 74% in a drinking-age setting — how similarity, positive instances, and ease of recall impersonate probability, evidence, and frequency
测一测 🧠
学完顺手检验一下，看你能认出几个。
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