Confirmation Bias: Seeing Only What You Want to See
Confirmation bias: people are naturally drawn to evidence that supports what they already believe, and automatically ignore or nitpick the evidence against it.
Example: you've decided a certain star sign is stingy, so every time someone of that sign is tight with money, you think "see?"; when one is generous, you don't notice it or say "he's the exception." The result: you always feel you're right.
Anchoring: The Magic of the First Number
The anchoring effect: the very first number you see acts like an anchor, dragging your later judgment toward it—even when that number is completely unreliable.
Example: a price tag reads "was 999, now 299." That 999 is the anchor, making you feel 299 is a steal—when the item may have only been worth 200 to begin with.
Why They're So Hard to Guard Against
The worst thing about biases is that while they're happening you feel nothing, and even think you're being objective and rational.
To counter confirmation bias, actively look for counterexamples; to counter anchoring, set aside the number you saw and ask yourself, "if no one had quoted me a price, how much would I think it's worth," then compare.
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想真正动手做题、记进度、攒连胜？到互动课里练。
Which behavior most typically reflects "confirmation bias"?
答案：Deciding a product is good, then reading only the good reviews and ignoring the bad ones
Collecting only what supports your existing view and ignoring the opposing information is exactly confirmation bias. The second is anchoring; the third is ad hominem; the fourth is a false dilemma.
A salesperson first says "this bag retails for 5,000 in the boutique," then says "today it's only 1,500," making you feel it's a great deal. What does this mainly exploit?
答案：The anchoring effect: the high number thrown out first raises your reference point
5,000 is the anchor dropped first, pulling up your judgment of "is it worth it," so 1,500 looks like a bargain. This has nothing to do with your existing beliefs, so it isn't confirmation bias.
True or false: a good way to counter confirmation bias is to actively look for evidence that "could prove yourself wrong."
答案：True
Confirmation bias makes us seek only supporting evidence; doing the opposite—deliberately hunting for counterexamples—is exactly an effective countermeasure.
True or false: as long as a person knows they have a bias, they won't be affected by it anymore.
答案：False
Knowing about a bias doesn't make you immune; biases often happen without your noticing. What truly helps is the habit of actively checking (finding counterexamples, setting aside the anchor), not confidence.
The bias where people tend to focus only on information that supports their existing view and ignore opposing information is called ____ bias.
答案：confirmation
This "see only what you want to see" bias is confirmation bias. To counter it, actively look for counterexamples.
You want to estimate a fair price for a used phone. Which approach best reduces the interference of "anchoring"?
答案：Estimate a fair price yourself before looking at the seller's quote, then compare against their quote
Estimating independently first avoids being anchored by the seller's first number. The second and third are led around by the quote; the fourth is confirmation bias, not a counter to anchoring.